http://johngaltfla.com/wordpress/2013/12/04/how-chinese-data-predicted-a-crappy-christmas-retail-season/
How Chinese Data Predicted a Crappy Christmas Retail Season
by John Galt
December 4, 2013 21:15 ET The initial reports about Rude Shopping Day Thursday (Thanksgiving evening) and Black Friday are out and guess what? They sucked compared to last year….
Black Friday Weekend Spending Drop Pressures U.S. Stores
The story above from
Bloomberg has the following quotation which tells the tale of the tape:
- Quote :
- Purchases at stores and websites fell 2.9 percent to $57.4 billion during the four days beginning with the Nov. 28 Thanksgiving holiday, according to a survey commissioned by the National Retail Federation. While 141 million people shopped, about 2 million more than last year, the average consumer’s spending dropped 3.9 percent to $407.02, the survey showed.
Oops.
The reality however is that if anyone is familiar with “logistics” and how the transportation industry works, the Chinese Freight Forwarders Index (CFFI), a key metric in monitoring acceleration or deceleration on a weekly basis of freight, especially containerized goods, moving from China into the U.S. and North America indicated early this summer that retailers are anticipating an economic slowdown if not outright contraction:
Yet comparing a sharp decline which started in May of this year to current mainstream media stories doesn’t provide a fair comparison. Thus the chart comparing 2008, a recession year to the current year’s data really spells out how retailers before the crash of 2008-2009 missed the boat and this year are playing it somewhat cautious:
Look for more bad news and larger discounts in the weeks ahead. Retailers know the consumer is broke and no matter what smoke the regime blows up everyone’s ass, the reality is that the middle class is too far in debt, too scared for their future income, and terrified about the impact of Obamacare on their economic future.