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 |  Subject: Israeli author: “I think this deal makes an Israeli strike inevitable.”  Tue Nov 26, 2013 9:19 am | |
| Listen to the war drums they are getting louder..... Israeli author: “I think this deal makes an Israeli strike inevitable.” In Uncategorized on November 26, 2013 at 11:44 am
 >> Major U.S.-Israeli air exercise — “Blue Flag” — underway for next two weeks
(Washington, D.C.) — This week, an American reporter interviewed Yossi Klein Halevi, “the American-born Israeli author of the masterful [book], Like Dreamers: The Story of the Israeli Paratroopers Who Reunited Jerusalem and Divided a Nation, who is in the U.S. on a book tour. He had strong words of condemnation for the nuclear deal reached in Geneva with Iran.”
I can’t say I’m sure Halevi is correct, that an Israeli strike is now “inevitable,” but I thought these were comments worth you seeing.
Excerpts from the interview:
- “I think it’s a betrayal. The Obama administration had to be dragged into supporting sanctions. It took the administration three years to sign up for crippling sanctions. And now, just as they’re starting to work, the administration is beginning to dismantle the system. That’s a betrayal.
- “They are laying the groundwork for another North Korea. One way or another, they [Iranians] are going to reach the finish line. They’re either going to do it through subterfuge, or by pocketing the gains from this deal and then not moving forward to the final status agreement and then daring the international community not to implement the sanctions….
- “Before this deal, there were two credible threats to a nuclear Iran. One was the sanctions effort, and the other was a Israeli strike. The deal with Iran undercuts both. If Israel doesn’t strike, Iran will go nuclear. And the price of an Israeli strike has now has risen exponentially.
- [The reporter] asked Halevi about Jeffrey Goldberg’s conclusion that the deal was the “least-worst thing that could have happened.”
- “If you’re going to make a deal, this is the best deal they could make. But there should not have been a deal. The Iranian regime was being cornered. Sanctions might even have brought about the fall of the regime. This is an unthinkable surrender.
- “Obama has created a condition in which Iran will be gradually reaccepted into the international community, and Israel could well find itself a pariah. That’s Obama’s gift to the Jewish people.
- “I think this deal makes an Israeli strike inevitable.”
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 CommentThe Iranian nuclear deal is done. Here’s what it says. Full text. In Uncategorized on November 26, 2013 at 11:25 am
 (Washington, D.C.) — “A historic deal was struck early Sunday between Iran and six world powers over Tehran’s nuclear program that slows the country’s nuclear development program in exchange for lifting some sanctions while a more formal agreement is worked out,” reported CNN. “The agreement — described as an ‘initial, six-month’ deal — includes ‘substantial limitations that will help prevent Iran from creating a nuclear weapon,’ U.S. President Barack Obama said in a nationally televised address. The deal, which capped days of marathon talks, addresses Iran’s ability to enrich uranium, what to do about its existing enriched uranium stockpiles, the number and potential of its centrifuges and Tehran’s ‘ability to produce weapons-grade plutonium using the Arak reactor,’ according to a statement released by the White House.”
The following is the full text of the nuclear deal between Iran and six world powers, as transmitted by CNN:
Joint Plan of Action
Preamble
The goal for these negotiations is to reach a mutually-agreed long-term comprehensive solution that would ensure Iranˈs nuclear program will be exclusively peaceful. Iran reaffirms that under no circumstances will Iran ever seek or develop any nuclear weapons. This comprehensive solution would build on these initial measures and result in a final step for a period to be agreed upon and the resolution of concerns. This comprehensive solution would enable Iran to fully enjoy its right to nuclear energy for peaceful purposes under the relevant articles of the NPT in conformity with its obligations therein. This comprehensive solution would involve a mutually defined enrichment program with practical limits and transparency measures to ensure the peaceful nature of the program. This comprehensive solution would constitute an integrated whole where nothing is agreed until everything is agreed. This comprehensive solution would involve a reciprocal, step-by step process, and would produce the comprehensive lifting of all UN Security Council sanctions, as well as multilateral and national sanctions related to Iranˈs nuclear program.
There would be additional steps in between the initial measures and the final step, including, among other things, addressing the UN Security Council resolutions, with a view toward bringing to a satisfactory conclusion the UN Security Councilˈs consideration of this matter. The E3+3 and Iran will be responsible for conclusion and implementation of mutual near-term measures and the comprehensive solution in good faith. A Joint Commission of E3/EU+3 and Iran will be established to monitor the implementation of the near-term measures and address issues that may arise, with the IAEA responsible for verification of nuclear-related measures. The Joint Commission will work with the IAEA to facilitate resolution of past and present issues of concern.
Elements of a first step
The first step would be time-bound, with a duration of 6 months, and renewable by mutual consent, during which all parties will work to maintain a constructive atmosphere for negotiations in good faith.
Iran would undertake the following voluntary measures:
* From the existing uranium enriched to 20%, retain half as working stock of 20% oxide for fabrication of fuel for the TRR. Dilute the remaining 20% UF6 to no more than 5%. No reconversion line.
* Iran announces that it will not enrich uranium over 5% for the duration of the 6 months.
* Iran announces that it will not make any further advances of its activities at the Natanz Fuel Enrichment Plant (1), Fordow (2), or the Arak reactor (3), designated by the IAEA as IR-40.
* Beginning when the line for conversion of UF6 enriched up to 5% to UO2 is ready, Iran has decided to convert to oxide UF6 newly enriched up to 5% during the 6 month period, as provided in the operational schedule of the conversion plant declared to the IAEA.
* No new locations for the enrichment.
* Iran will continue its safeguarded R&D practices, including its current enrichment R&D practices, which are not designed for accumulation of the enriched uranium.
* No reprocessing or construction of a facility capable of reprocessing.
* Enhanced monitoring:
- Provision of specified information to the IAEA, including information on Iranˈs plans for nuclear facilities, a description of each building on each nuclear site, a description of the scale of operations for each location engaged in specified nuclear activities, information on uranium mines and mills, and information on source material. This information would be provided within three months of the adoption of these measures.
- Submission of an updated DIQ for the reactor at Arak, designated by the IAEA as the IR-40, to the IAEA.
- Steps to agree with the IAEA on conclusion of the Safeguards Approach for the reactor at Arak, designated by the IAEA as the IR-40.
- Daily IAEA inspector access when inspectors are not present for the purpose of Design Information Verification, Interim Inventory Verification, Physical Inventory Verification, and unannounced inspections, for the purpose of access to offline surveillance records, at Fordow and Natanz.
- IAEA inspector managed access to:
. centrifuge assembly workshops4;
. centrifuge rotor production workshops and storage facilities; and,
. uranium mines and mills.
In return, the E3/EU+3 would undertake the following voluntary measures:
- Pause efforts to further reduce Iranˈs crude oil sales, enabling Iranˈs current customers to purchase their current average amounts of crude oil. Enable the repatriation of an agreed amount of revenue held abroad. For such oil sales, suspend the EU and U.S. sanctions on associated insurance and transportation services.
- Suspend U.S. and EU sanctions on:
. Iranˈs petrochemical exports, as well as sanctions on associated services. (5)
. Gold and precious metals, as well as sanctions on associated services.
• Suspend U.S. sanctions on Iranˈs auto industry, as well as sanctions on associated services.
• License the supply and installation in Iran of spare parts for safety of flight for Iranian civil aviation and associated services. License safety related inspections and repairs in Iran as well as associated services. (6)
• No new nuclear-related UN Security Council sanctions.
• No new EU nuclear-related sanctions.
• The U.S. Administration, acting consistent with the respective roles of the President and the Congress, will refrain from imposing new nuclear-related sanctions.
• Establish a financial channel to facilitate humanitarian trade for Iranˈs domestic needs using Iranian oil revenues held abroad. Humanitarian trade would be defined as transactions involving food and agricultural products, medicine, medical devices, and medical expenses incurred abroad. This channel would involve specified foreign banks and non-designated Iranian banks to be defined when establishing the channel.
* This channel could also enable:
a- transactions required to pay Iranˈs UN obligations; and,
b- direct tuition payments to universities and colleges for Iranian students studying abroad, up to an agreed amount for the six month period.
• Increase the EU authorisation thresholds for transactions for non-sanctioned trade to an agreed amount.
Elements of the final step of a comprehensive solution*
The final step of a comprehensive solution, which the parties aim to conclude negotiating and commence implementing no more than one year after the adoption of this document, would:
• Have a specified long-term duration to be agreed upon.
• Reflect the rights and obligations of parties to the NPT and IAEA Safeguards Agreements.
• Comprehensively lift UN Security Council, multilateral and national nuclear-related sanctions, including steps on access in areas of trade, technology, finance, and energy, on a schedule to be agreed upon.
• Involve a mutually defined enrichment program with mutually agreed parameters consistent with practical needs, with agreed limits on scope and level of enrichment activities, capacity, where it is carried out, and stocks of enriched uranium, for a period to be agreed upon.
• Fully resolve concerns related to the reactor at Arak, designated by the IAEA as the IR-40. No reprocessing or construction of a facility capable of reprocessing.
• Fully implement the agreed transparency measures and enhanced monitoring. Ratify and implement the Additional Protocol, consistent with the respective roles of the President and the Majlis (Iranian parliament).
• Include international civil nuclear cooperation, including among others, on acquiring modern light water power and research reactors and associated equipment, and the supply of modern nuclear fuel as well as agreed R&D practices.
Following successful implementation of the final step of the comprehensive solution for its full duration, the Iranian nuclear program will be treated in the same manner as that of any non-nuclear weapon state party to the NPT.
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(Footnotes)
(1) Namely, during the 6 months, Iran will not feed UF6 into the centrifuges installed but not enriching uranium. Not install additional centrifuges. Iran announces that during the first 6 months, it will replace existing centrifuges with centrifuges of the same type.
(2) At Fordow, no further enrichment over 5% at 4 cascades now enriching uranium, and not increase enrichment capacity. Not feed UF6 into the other 12 cascades, which would remain in a non-operative state. No interconnections between cascades. Iran announces that during the first 6 months, it will replace existing centrifuges with centrifuges of the same type.
(3) Iran announces on concerns related to the construction of the reactor at Arak that for 6 months it will not commission the reactor or transfer fuel or heavy water to the reactor site and will not test additional fuel or produce more fuel for the reactor or install remaining components.
(4) Consistent with its plans, Iranˈs centrifuge production during the 6 months will be dedicated to replace damaged machines.
(5) ˈSanctions on associated servicesˈ means any service, such as insurance, transportation, or financial, subject to the underlying U.S. or EU sanctions applicable, insofar as each service is related to the underlying sanction and required to facilitate the desired transactions. These services could involve any non-designated Iranian entities.
(6) Sanctions relief could involve any non-designated Iranian airlines as well as Iran Air.
* With respect to the final step and any steps in between, the standard principle that ˈnothing is agreed until everything is agreedˈ applies.ˈ
CommentAnalyzing “the deal”: As Iran & White House claim victory, what will Israel & the Saudis do now? In Uncategorized on November 26, 2013 at 10:25 am  Chief negotiator Catherine Ashton and Iran’s foreign minister announce agreement on Iran’s nuclear program early on Sunday, November 24 in Geneva. (Getty Images/CNN)
UPDATED WITH NEW ARTICLES & COMMENTARY: (Washington, D.C.) — The deal is done. The Iranian leaders are claiming victory. The White House is claiming victory. Most European governments, as well as Russia, are claiming victory.
The Israeli government, meanwhile, is horrified. They, and many of their citizens, feel more isolated than ever. As Ireported from Jerusalem, this was true before the deal was struck. It is even more true now.
“One [Israeli] radio host on Sunday repeatedly played clips of President Obama, during his visit here in March, reassuring Israelis, in Hebrew, that ‘you are not alone,’ and then said ominously, ‘We are in fact alone,’” reported the New York Times.
Below, you’ll find a selection of key articles I’ve found helpful over the past 72 hours in understanding the deal and the reaction to it from various quarters. Above all, I encourage you to read the full text of the “interim deal” for yourself, along with President Obama’s statement, the Ayatollah Khamenei’s comments, and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu’s comments. These primary source documents will give you the basic facts and contours of the debate.
- Full text of the Iran nuclear deal.
- President Obama’s statement.
- The Ayatollah Khamenei’s statement.
- Prime Minister Netanyahu’s statement.
Then, we need to ask two critical questions:
- What will the Saudis do now?
- What will the Israelis do now?
The Saudis have been signaling in recent weeks that they are losing confidence in their alliance with the U.S., they are increasingly prepared to buy nuclear weapons from Pakistan, and they might even create a tacit alliance with Israel and the Gulf states as a bulwark against Iran. Is all that bluster, or is Riyadh serious?
Meanwhile, the initial consensus among most Mideast analysts is that Israel is now constrained from launching preemptive military strike lest the Netanyahu government risk a massive backlash from the international community that has just agreed to an “interim” agreement with Iran, pending a “comprehensive” agreement in 2014. I have posted a few examples of such views below. But I’ve also posted several examples of Israelis saying this deal makes a preemptive strike more likely, and possibly even inevitable, especially if the Saudis will help. Is this true, or just the bluster of those frustrated by what they perceive as the world’s betrayal?
To be candid, I don’t have the answers to these questions. Not yet. In part, this is because I don’t think the Saudis or the Israelis at the highest levels have come to clear answers about how to proceed from here. At the moment, I would lean towards agreeing with those who believe Israeli won’t take any military action during these next six months, but there are many factors I cannot see from this angle.
I don’t want to see a scenario like the one I portrayed in Damascus Countdown unfold. I’d much rather see a diplomatic solution that truly worked. That said, I’m deeply concerned that the world powers just let themselves be hoodwinked by the mullahs in Iran, and that the world has suddenly become a much more dangerous place, with Iran in a better position to build and deploy nuclear weapons.
There are many variables here. And there are likely to be many twists and turns on the road ahead. The best I can do is promise to keep you posted on developments as they unfold. Let’s keep praying for the Iranian nuclear threat to be neutralized peacefully, if at all possible.
IRANIAN REACTION:
- Ayatollah Ali Khamenei claims victory for nuclear program (Daily Caller)
- Khamenei says “Israeli regime is doomed to failure, annihilation” as nuclear negotiations resume in Geneva. (multiple sources)
U.S. & ALLIED REACTION:
- Canada vows to keep its Iran sanctions after deal: Canadian FM skeptical of Geneva agreement with Iran, decided to keep ‘tough’ sanctions in place, because ‘Iran has not earned the right to have the benefit of the doubt,’ FM Baird said (Agence France Presse)
- China, Germany, Russia hail Iran nuclear deal (Press TV)
- Russia says only winners, no losers in Iran nuclear deal (AFP)
- Iran, world powers reach historic nuclear deal (Washington Post)
- Accord Reached With Iran to Halt Nuclear Program (New York Times)
- Full text of Obama statement on nuclear deal with Iran — President says interim agreement cuts off ‘Iran’s most likely paths to a bomb’ (Times of Israel)
- House Majority Leader Eric Cantor: Iran nuclear deal ‘dangerous’ (Politico)
- Ambassador John Bolton: Abject Surrender by the United States. What does Israel do now? (Weekly Standard)
- Former Jerusalem Post editor Bret Stephens: ”Worse Than Munich — In 1938, Chamberlain bought time to rearm. In 2013, Obama gives Iran time to go nuclear. “(Wall Street Journal)
- Obama phones Israeli PM to discuss Iran deal (AP)
- Mideast analysts: Iran deal ‘blunts possibility of Israel strike’ (Agence France Presse)
- French foreign minister doubts Israel will strike Iran (Jerusalem Post)
ISRAELI REACTION:
- Israeli Leaders Denounce Geneva Accord (New York Times)
- Source: Netanyahu Scolded Obama in Phone Call on Iran Deal (Breitbart)
- Bennett: ‘Bad’ Iran deal increases need for military action — Economics minister and Jewish Home leader says Israel cannot ‘sit idly by’ while world allows Iran to be 6 weeks from the bomb (Times of Israel)
- Israeli ministers lambaste ‘delusional’ Iran nuclear deal — Liberman says agreement will force Israel to make ‘different decisions’; Steinitz decries world celebrations; Prime Minister’s Office pans deal as giving Iran exactly what it wants (Times of Israel)
- Israeli Officials Knew White House Was Holding Secret Talks With Iran — “We felt like we were being stabbed in the back.” (BuzzFeed)
- Poll shows ebbing Israeli support for Iran strike — Survey indicates backing drops even further if US opposed to move; second poll reveals majority of Americans favor deal with Tehran (Times of Israel)
- Israeli commentator: With Iran deal sealed, don’t expect Israel to send out the air force — That would be political suicide. Still, the agreement only stops Iran in place; it’s still well-positioned to surge toward a bomb. (Haaretz)
- TAU Analysts: No Israeli Strike on Iran for 6 Months — Tel Aviv University researchers suggest slim chances for an Israeli strike on Iran during 6 month negotiation period. (Israel National News)
- Israeli author: Iran Deal ‘Makes an Israeli Strike Inevitable’ (Breitbart)
- “We are not bluffing.” Israel ready to strike Iran alone, says Netanyahu’s outgoing national security advisor. (Financial Times/Haaretz)
SAUDI AND OTHER ARAB REACTION:
- Iran nuclear deal: Saudi Arabia warns it will strike out on its own: Saudi Arabia claims they were kept in the dark by Western allies over Iran nuclear deal and says it will strike out on its own (UK Telegraph)
- Iran Is Playing Obama, Says Savvy Saudi Prince — “There’s no confidence in the Obama administration doing the right thing with Iran,” he told me, with a directness that would make Benjamin Netanyahu blush. “We’re really concerned — Israel, Saudi Arabia, the Middle East countries — about this.” (Jeffrey Goldberg column, Bloomberg)
- Saudi prince to Iran: We won’t sit idly by — Riyadh’s envoy to London slams US ‘incomprehensible rush’ to a deal with Tehran, won’t comment on reports of Saudi-Pakistan nuclear deal (Times of Israel)
- Sunni Arab unease about Iran deal runs deep (Reuters/Jerusalem Post)
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