Comet ISON: Should we fear it?
Fact: In 1665, Londoners looked up and marveled at a spectacular comet splitting the sky. By the end of the year, a hundred thousand of those spectators would be dead. Daniel Defoe wrote about it in his classic 1722 novel, "A Journal of the Plague Year, saying that the comet of 1665 "foretold of a heavy judgment, slow but severe, terrible and frightful."
But human fear of comets goes back much, much farther than that – to the dawn of human history, in fact. In their landmark book "Comet," Carl Sagan and Ann Druyan note that as early as the 15th Century B.C., the ancient Chinese were associating comets with really bad things. Throughout recorded history, observers have connected comets to everything from plagues and famine to war and flood. Most modern scientists have chalked it all up to superstition. But not all of them have. No less than the great Edmond Halley himself, the eminent 16th century scientist who discovered the periodic nature of comets, and who famously predicted the return of the body that now bears his name, suggested that a comet may have been responsible for The Great Flood. The Royal Society censured him for it, but despite the society's hissy fit, the idea refused to die. In modern times, scientist and author Immanuel Velikovsky took up the torch for the cometary connection to disaster. Most scientists considered him to be a crackpot, but he had a wide public following.
Could it be that in connecting comets to doomsday scenarios, our forebears may have known something that we don't?
These days most scientists accept that comets or asteroids have been responsible for disasters in the past, including the extinction of the dinosaurs 66 million year ago. But can a comet that doesn't hit the earth cause a disaster – such as, for instance, a plague?
Here's some food for thought. According to some theories, comets may have been responsible for supplying most of Earth's water – perhaps even all of it. Some believe comets may be seeding the Universe with life. So much cometary dust has fallen on the Earth that you almost certainly breathe some of it in every day. And how's this for a conversation-starter: scientists don't truly know exactly what's in comets. You've heard comets described as "dirty snowballs." But it isn't all just ice and dust. Theories suggest that some comets may be made up of unknown organic chemicals consisting of up to 25% of their bulk. Question: what's aboard Comet ISON that is causing it to glow green right now? The fact is, historically comets have come in all sizes, shapes and colors. This hints at a wide array of chemical compositions.
These questions are what make doomsday theories – and science fiction – so much fun. Comet ISON plays a role in my just-published science fiction novel, "A Journal of the Crazy Year" (a name inspired by Defoe's work). I invite you to look it up on Amazon.com (it's a cheap read -- and a good one, according to my first user review) and also to find me on Facebook.
Forrest Carr
Novelist and recovering journalist