Prediction: "Vladimir Putin May Resign In Weeks" (Byron Wien)

Prediction: "Vladimir Putin May Resign In Weeks" (Byron Wien)

Published on Jan 7, 2015



Falling oil prices and a suffering economy and dying ruble May force Russian President Vladimir Putin to resign according to former Morgan Stanley Byron Wien 

http://www.paulbegleyprophecy.com also http://h.churchapp.mobi/paulbegleypro... alsohttp://au.ibtimes.com/articles/578145... also http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2015-01...



Byron Wien Sees S&P 500 Rallying 15%, Putin Resignation

By Lu Wang  Jan 5, 2015 1:08 PM ET  



Byron Wien, vice chairman of the advisory services unit at Blackstone Group LP,...Read More

U.S. stocks will rally for a fourth year even as economic growth slows and computer hackers destabilize a major bank, Byron Wien said in his annual list of predictions. Lower oil prices will deepen Russia’s travails, prompting President Vladimir Putin to resign, he said.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (SPX) will climb 15 percent, beating the rest of world for a second year as economies in Europe and Japan fall into recessions, wrote Wien, whose prediction for a rally in Japanese stocks came true in 2014 even as calls for higher oil prices and Treasury yields flopped. Wien, the vice chairman of Blackstone’s advisory services unit, has published the “surprises” list since 1986.

“The low price of crude oil, which continues throughout the first part of the year, has a major impact on Russia,” Wien wrote in a statement today. “The year-end 2014 rally in United States equities continues as the market rises for a strong performance in 2015.”

The 81-year-old former Morgan Stanley senior strategist was right in his call for a 2014 surge in the Nikkei 225 Stock Average to reach 18,000. The benchmark index for Japanese equities peaked at 17,935.64 in December. He missed moves in West Texas Intermediate crude and Treasury rates.

In 2015, Wien said, the world’s “luck runs out on cyber terrorism” as saboteurs prove more skillful than police.

“Hackers invade the personal and corporate accounts of a major money center bank and the Federal Reserve orders the institution to suspend transactions for five business days while the accuracy of its balances is verified,” he wrote.

The Fed will raise interest rates before the middle of 2015 and yields on Treasury notes will stay little changed for the year, according to Wien.

The central bank’s “timing proves faulty, however, as the momentum of the economy has begun to flag and a short-term slowdown has started,” he predicted. “The end of monetary accommodation and rising rates precipitate a correction in equities.”

While Wien was correct in forecasting a strengthening dollar with the U.S. economic growth picking up in 2014, he was wrong in calling the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury to rise to 4 percent. The yield fell to 2.17 percent from 3.02 percent at the end of 2013.

He also predicted the price of oil would exceed $110 per barrel in 2014. The U.S. crude benchmark, West Texas Intermediate, closed the year at $53.40 after peaking at $106.87 in June and averaging $92.64 a barrel.

Oil prices will drop to the $40s before recovering to above $70, driven by demand from emerging markets, Wien forecast. The slump in oil will force Iran to agree to roll back its weapons program and in the credit market, the selloff in high yield debt as a result of energy slump creates a “huge buying opportunity,” he said.

Wien predicted 12 months ago that the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index would advance about 20 percent in 2014 after a sharp correction. The gauge finished the year up 11 percent, recovering from a 7.4 percent drop that started in September, while the MSCI World ex-U.S. index was down 6.7 percent.

Stocks in the euro zone will decline for the year even after European Central Bank President Mario Draghistarts buying bonds, he said. In Japan, further fiscal and monetary stimulus and the suspension of the second planned sales tax increase won’t be enough to avoid a recession and the Nikkei 225 will be flat for the year, according to Wien.

“Shock and awe no longer works in Japan,” he wrote.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2015-01-05/byron-wien-sees-s-p-500-rallying-15-putin-resignation.html

I don't believe this will ever happen, he loves his country.

scottr99 wrote:

I don't believe this will ever happen, he loves his country.

I agree. If he 'resigns' it'll be so he can command a regiment of tanks headed into Europe.

I agree with both the above!