Report: Store Inventory Levels Reduced Nationwide: “Stock Up Now While You Can!”

Prudent man see's the danger....

http://www.shtfplan.com/headline-news/report-store-inventory-levels-reduced-nationwide-stock-up-now-while-you-can_01292016


Report: Store Inventory Levels Reduced Nationwide: “Stock Up Now While You Can!”

Jeremiah Johnson January 29th, 2016 SHTFplan.com Comments (167) Read by 17,096 people

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Sometimes good comments are worth an entire article.  This author is a big believer in the fostering of good, intelligent dialogues with commenters on these various alternative media sites.  We all have the ability (with comments) to function in the manner of unofficial reporters.  The nation is huge; however, the distance is nominal and the situations that arise in the nation as a whole can be chronicled and reported by we, the average citizens.  The comments and interactions are a means to that end.
In this light, I wish to ask you, the Readership to report on this important topic in order to present others with the situations taking place in their locales.  The topic referred to being declining inventories and a lack of purchases to meet with customer (I despise the word “consumers”) needs in terms of foodstuffs and nondurable goods.
I came across two excellent comments upon Steve Quayle’s website that bear reading, as these are two people with experience in retail marketing, inventory, ordering, and purchases.  Take a look at these:
#1 (From DJ, January 24, 2016)

Quote :

“Steve-
[Regarding the] alerts about the current state of the RR industry. This is in line with what I’ve been noticing as I visited our local/regional grocery store, Walmart, and Target this week in WI. I worked in big box retail for 20 years specializing in Inventory Management. These stores are all using computerized inventory management systems that monitor and automatically replenish inventory when levels/shelf stock get low. This prevents “out of stocks” and lost sales. These companies rely on the ability to replenish inventory quickly from regional warehouses.
As I shopped this week and looked at inventory levels I was shocked. There were numerous (above and beyond acceptable levels) out of stocks across category lines at all three retailers. And even where inventory was on the shelf, the overall levels were noticeably reduced. Based on my experience, working for two of these three organizations in store management, they have drastically/intentionally reduced their inventory levels. This is either due to financial stresses/poor sales effecting their ability to acquire new inventory, or it could be the result of what was mentioned earlier regarding the transporting of goods to these regional warehouses. Either way this doesn’t bode well for the what’s to come.  Stock up now while you can!”

#2 (From a Commenter following up #1 who didn’t provide a name, January 26, 2016)

Quote :

“I’d like to tailgate on the SQ Alert “based on my experience…” regarding stock levels in big box stores. This weekend we were in two such stores, each in fairly isolated communities which are easily the communities’ best source for acquiring grocery items in quantity.
I myself worked in retail (meat) for thirty years so I know exactly what a well-stocked store looks like, understand the key categories and category drivers, and how shelves are stocked and displays are built to drive sales and profits. I also understand supply chain and distribution methodologies quite well.
Each of the stores we were in were woefully under-stocked. This time of year-the few weeks following the holidays-is usually big business in groceries and low stock levels suggest either poor ordering at the store level, poor purchasing at the distribution level or a purposeful desire to be under-stocked.
Anyone familiar with the retail grocery industry is also familiar with how highly touted “the big box store’s” infrastructure is. They know exactly when demand is high and for what items and in what quantities. It is very unlikely that both stores somehow got “surprised” by unusually high demand. It is reasonable then to imagine that low stock levels in rural areas with few options is a purposed endeavor to assure that both the budget conscious and the folks in more remote areas are not fully able to load up their pantries.
Simply put I believe the major retailer in question is doing their part to limit the ability of rural America to be sufficiently prepared. Nevertheless, we are wise to do our best to keep ahead of the curve. God bless your efforts, Steve.”

Now, both of these two guys have a lot of experience regarding inventory and supply at the retail level.  The comments fall upon the heels of the railroads in the U.S. suffering declines in revenue to match a corresponding decline in the shipments of goods and containers.  As of this writing, the BDI (Baltic Dry Index) is down to 317; this alone should be substantial cause for alarm.  We are seeing supplies disappear in the stores because of the plummeting BDI and the oil companies defaulting due to the plunging price of crude.
What are you seeing in your immediate area?  What is going on in the small grocery stores (if any are left) regarding prices and supplies of food and nondurables?  Those of you with experience in retail, distribution, and trucking…what are you seeing out there?  I urge you to report on what you are seeing and what is happening where you live…in rural and urban areas.  All are interrelated and all are important; your comments and observations are keys to presentation of the whole picture and are both welcomed and valued.

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Jeremiah Johnson is the Nom de plume of a retired Green Beret of the United States Army Special Forces (Airborne).  Mr. Johnson is also a Gunsmith, a Certified Master Herbalist, a Montana Master Food Preserver, and a graduate of the U.S. Army’s SERE school (Survival Evasion Resistance Escape).  He lives in a cabin in the mountains of Western Montana with his wife and three cats. You can follow Jeremiah’s regular writings at SHTFplan.com.
This article may be republished or excerpted with proper attribution to the author and a link to www.SHTFplan.com.

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Also Read:
The Prepper’s Blueprint: A Step-By-Step Guide To Prepare For Any Disaster
Forced Economic Free Fall: “The World Is About To Enter A Global Depression Unlike Anything Seen Before”
Fall Of The American Empire: “They Intend To Collapse the Financial System”
The Powers That Be Have Lost Control: “Everything Is Falling Apart Everywhere”
Analyst Predicts Massive Bailouts For Main Street: “Money Will Be Printed Out Of Thin Air And Given To You”
The Six Laws of Survival: Strategies For Beating the Worst Case Scenario

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-01-25/texas-economy-collapses-dallas-fed-survey-crashes-6-year-lows-hope-disappears


Texas Economy Collapses - Dallas Fed Survey Crashes To 6-Year Lows As "D" Word Is Uttered

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/25/2016 15:38 -0500

• Capital Expenditures
  
• Dallas Fed
  
• Recession
  

For the 13th month in a row, The Dallas Fed Manufacturing Outlook was contractionary with a stunning -34.6 print following December's already disastrous collapse back to -20.1, post-crisis lows. With "hope" having plunged back into negative territory (-2.2) in December, January saw a complete collapse to -24.0 as one respondent exclaimed, "we expect the continued depression in the oil and gas industry to negatively impact our customer base and result in significant demand reduction."
Bloodbath...

 
And its across the board with production, employment, and shipments all collapsing...
.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2016/01-overflow/Dallas Fed Table.jpg][/url]
 
As hope is crushed...

Chart: Bloomberg
But the punchline was the respondents, virtually all of whom confirm the recession, and one even casually tossed in the "D"(epression) word:
Primary Metal Manufacturing

• The impact of the continued decline in the energy sector, compounded with several new regulations from both the Environmental Protection Agency and Occupational Safety and Health Administration, is depressing economic conditions even further from 2015. Our top 10 customers continue to indicate declines in manufacturing and new capital expenditures for 2016. Outlooks continue to be adjusted down from six months ago, and we are seeing several foundry closings in our industry due to the state of our industry and strong offshoring projects.
  
• Our projected increase in business is related to market-share gains at the expense of our main competitor (foreign owned) who is having service problems.
  

Fabricated Metal Product Manufacturing

• We expect the continued depression in the oil and gas industry to negatively impact our customer base and result in significant demand reduction.
  
• I believe that if the stock market continues to deteriorate, spending on housing replacement products will decrease. Large purchases on housing seem to parallel consumers’ 401k performance.
  
• It is getting pretty ugly, and the strength of the dollar is really making us noncompetitive.
  

Machinery Manufacturing

• The continued downturn in the energy sector and its impact on oilfield services companies is brutal and financially punishing, leading to significant reductions in our labor force and facility closures.
  
• Seasonally, it is a slower time of the year currently. There aren’t any indicators of any big change in the next six months.
  
• Our increases in volume do not stem as much from ideal economic conditions as much as from breadth of development in multiple states. Brand expansion and awareness are more of the catalyst than the typical industry indicators. Our customers in Texas are experiencing significant decreases in business volume. As a whole, I would rate the economic conditions in Texas and many other parts of the country as poor.
  
• Oil and gas prices and their impact on capital spending by our customers continue to be our biggest concern.
  I expect the Fed to recognize the weakness in the economy and the fact that we are in recession and drop interest rates again.
  

Computer and Electronic Product Manufacturing

• Demand slowed more quickly than is typical in December. Early demand is weaker in January, leading to the belief that growth in 2016 may be elusive.
  
• It is time for Congress and the president to work on tax reform. Small businesses, especially in manufacturing, are suffering due to the high dollar, high taxes, and regulations.
  

Transportation Equipment Manufacturing

• The drop in offshore oil production globally affects helicopter flight activity, reducing equipment turnover from large fleet operators.
  
• Our outlook is contingent on the energy sector not completely ruining budgeting activity for most Texas municipalities. If that happens, the six-month outlook may turn negative.
  
• Our business is cyclical, with our main selling season happening in March through June. Our production will increase during the winter months in anticipation of the spring selling season.
  

Food Manufacturing

• Domestic sales have softened across our channels and category. The strong dollar remains a challenge to our export business. Agricultural raw material costs have decreased, helping with other cost challenges.
  

Apparel Manufacturing

• July will be when we start getting busy for our Christmas shipments.
  

Paper Manufacturing

• We see a slight downward bias at this point.
  

Printing and Related Support Activities

• We are part of a company with four separate, very different businesses. They are all business to business, and they have all struggled with sales growth the past year. We’ve been able to improve profitability on a 1 percent sales increase, but sales have just stalled. Our old customers have shrunk, and we’ve managed that meager 1 percent only by on-boarding a lot of new business.
  

And now cue to the career Goldman banker recently put in charge of the Dallas Fed...