‘Iran already has a nuclear bomb,’ Israeli paper claims

I'm sure at some point in time they will use it against Israel or try. Israel won't worry about a red line........


‘Iran already has a nuclear bomb,’ Israeli paper claims

Unnamed government analysts quoted by Maariv say Tehran has crossed all red lines and is already in possession of at least one nuclear weapon

BY JOSHUA DAVIDOVICH September 27, 2013, 1:19 pm 14


A worker outside the Bushehr nuclear power plant in Iran (photo credit: AP/Vahid 

Some Israeli government analysts believe Iran already has at least one nuclear bomb, an Israeli journalist wrote in an article published Friday.

Shalom Yerushalmi, writing in the national daily Maariv, said that “government security sources up to date on development in Iran,” told him recently that Tehran has crossed all points of no return and already has its first nuclear weapon, and maybe more.

The report marks the first time a government official has been quoted saying Iran already has a nuclear weapon. No sources in the piece were named.


The information, if true, would mark a major shift in international relations and would be a game changer in terms of a regional power balance.


“It’s too late for Israel [to prevent an Iranian bomb]. Iran has crossed all the borders and all the constraints, and it has a first nuclear bomb in its possession, and maybe more than that,” Yerushalmi writes, basing himself on what he says is the assessment he heard this week from state security sources. ”We are facing a historic change in the strategic balance of forces in the region.”


He then quotes a source who he says is deeply familiar with what he calls the relentless war against the Iranians. “This is no longer about how to prevent a bomb,” the source is quoted saying, “but about how to prevent its being launched, and what to do if and when.”


Yerushalmi, still basing himself on the anonymous security sources’ assessment, goes on to compare the current behavior of Iran’s Supreme leader Ali Khamenei, and new President Hasan Rouhani, in their interactions with the West, to a soccer coach at the end of a hard-fought match which he knows he has now won. The Iranian leadership is behaving with the air of “those who have achieved their target, and therefore can today afford to be more generous and to offer new (self-serving) messages.” The Iranian leadership can afford to be friendlier, he writes, “because victory has been secured.”


Maariv led its Friday paper with a photograph of a smiling Rouhani, alongside the headline, “What’s hiding behind the smile,” and a sub-headline quoting the security sources saying Iran now has “at least one bomb.” It then adds that most in the security establishment, however, still believe that this “nightmare scenario has not yet been realized.”


While most Western countries believe Iran’s nuclear program is intended for military purposes, officials in Israel, the US and elsewhere say Tehran has yet to “break out” toward a bomb, a process that could take over a year.


Iran, which on Thursday agreed to renewed talks with world powers on curbing its nuclear program, says its program is for peaceful purposes.


On Friday, Iranian and UN officials met to discuss whether to resume inspections meant to determine whether Tehran worked on atomic arms, in a test of pledges by Iran’s new president to reduce nuclear tensions.


Iranian envoy Reza Najafi said in Vienna that it would be unrealistic to expect that “in just one day of meeting we can solve our problems.”


Herman Nackaerts of the International Atomic Energy Agency said only that he hoped the meeting could “intensify the dialogue.”


The UN agency wants access to a site it suspects was used to test conventional explosive triggers meant to set off a nuclear blast.


A report released last month by the IAEA said that while Iran was testing new centrifuges, which could help it eventually create a nuclear weapon, its uranium stockpile was still below the amount needed for a bomb.


“It is unlikely, at this point, that Iran could dash toward further enrichment to weapons-grade without the IAEA detecting Tehran’s activities,”Reuters quoted the Arms Control Association, a Washington-based advocacy and research group.


Israel sees an Iranian nuclear weapon as an existential threat, and Jerusalem has campaigned vigorously around the world for heavy sanctions to be placed on Iran, with a threat of military action should those fail to stop the nuclear program.


Next week, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is due to deliver a speech at the United Nations during which he is expected to press for maintaining pressure on Iran despite a recent easing of tensions between Tehran and the West. In comments Tuesday, Netanyahu urged the world not to be “fooled” by Iran’s newly moderate rhetoric, which he said was a “smokescreen” to obscure its continued drive toward nuclear weapons.


“Israel would welcome a genuine diplomatic solution that truly dismantles Iran’s capacity to develop nuclear weapons,” Netanyahu said. “But we will not be fooled by half-measures that merely provide a smokescreen for Iran’s continual pursuit of nuclear weapons. And the world should not be fooled either.”


The Associated Press contributed to this report.


http://www.timesofisrael.com/iran-already-has-a-nuclear-bomb-paper-claims/

Good article CZ. Most of the world is being lied to.

Its well known they paid a Pakistani Nuclear scientist (I forget his name) for warhead blueprints/design. That was back in 2005 or 2006.

In 2008 it was well known they were enriching 30kg of natural uranium. Natural Uranium is 0.711% U-235.

http://www.isis-online.org/publications/iran/ISIS_Iran_IAEA_Report_29May2008.pdf

Uranium must be enriched to at least 80%, preferably 90% to make the mushroom grow.

In November of 2012 it was well known they had enriched to 20% and inspectors in fact confirmed this. Barry took them at their word they would stop at 20% and just let them be. He was focused on winning an election and arming his musloid brotherhood.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2012/nov/04/iran-suspend-uranium-enrichment

Assuming they did not stop enriching and basically backing into the number of centrifuges that survived STUXNET based on the amount of time between STUXNET and when they reached 20%, and assuming they've spent the last 8 years getting the warheads ready for their HEU:

They've had sufficient time to produce two (2) 14 kg single implosion devices similar or identical to a standard Pakistani design.

http://www.nrdc.org/nuclear/fissionw/fissionweapons.pdf

This is all extremely conservative. Worst of all, they can mine for as much of it as they need, unlike many countries.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/04/09/iran-uranium-mines-yellow-cake-plant_n_3042088.html

"The Separative Work Unit or SWU is a measure of the work expended during an enrichment process. The aim of an enrichment process is to increase the concentration of one or more isotopes in a multi-isotope element. For uranium, a typical enrichment process consists of a number of centrifuges arranged in the form of a cascade (a number of separating centrifuges arranged in parallel and in series).

A cascade has three streams of material:

1) The Feed material at a specific concentration of the desired isotope. If the feed is natural uranium, the desired isotope is U-235 and the feed concentration is 0.007

2) The Waste (or stripped) material at a specified concentration of the desired isotope. The waste concentration will always be smaller than that of the feed. For most typical enrichments, the waste concentration will be in the range of 0.002-0.0003 of U-235.

3) The Product (or enriched) material with a desired concentration of the desired isotope, which is always higher than that of the feed material. Nuclear reactors usually require U-235 concentrations of about 5% (that is, 0.05) or so. Nuclear weapons require material of concentration of about 90%.

The equation defining Separative Work is:

SWU = P�V(Np) + W�V(Nw) � F�V(Nf)

Where P is the product amount, Np is the product concentration, W is the waste amount, Nw is the waste concentration, F is the feed amount, Nf is the feed concentration, and V(x) is a value function that takes the form:

V(x)=(2x-1)ln(x/(1-x)) where x is a given concentration.

The value function V(x) is dimensionless, so the units of SWU is contingent on the units of P, W, and F. The value of a SWU can, therefore, be in terms of any amount of material. If P, W, and F are in units of kilograms, then the SWU will be a kg-SWU. Typically, a SWU is expressed in terms of kilograms or metric tonnes. The performance of a centrifuge can be expressed in terms of rate of enrichment, that is, SWUs per year or month. Individual centrifuges might be described in terms of kg-SWUs per year and entire cascades described in terms of Ton-SWUs per year. A SWU per unit time is referred to, not as separative work, but as separative power."

http://www.fas.org/cgi-bin/calculators/sep.pl